منابع مشابه
Confidently Biased: Comparisons with Anchors Bias Estimates and Increase Confidence
Across a wide variety of situations, exposure to anchors has been shown to bias people’s estimates. What is not known, however, is whether externally provided anchors influence the confidence that people have in their estimates. Our studies had two goals. First, we tested whether exposure to anchors influenced people’s subjective confidence levels (Studies 1 and 2). These studies revealed that ...
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The confidence interval, its close cousin the p-value, and other statistical summaries of data are widely used in science, including the occupational and environmental health sciences, but they are almost as widely misused. My purpose here is to review some basic matters that should be covered in every introductory statistics course, but are generally omitted. More specifically, some of the man...
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A quasi-independent (QI) subsequence is a subset of time-series observations obtained by systematic sampling. Because the observations appear to be independent, as determined by the runs tests, classical statistical techniques can be used on those observations directly. This paper discusses implementation of a sequential procedure to determine the simulation run length to obtain a QI subsequenc...
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The forecast is very complex in financial markets. The reasons for this are the fluctuation of financial data, Such as Stock index data over time. The determining a model for forecasting fluctuations, can play a significant role in investors deci-sion making in financial markets. In the present paper, the Black Scholes model in the prediction of stock on year later value, on using data from mel...
متن کاملConfidence & Credible Interval Estimates
Point estimates of unknown parameters θ governing the distribution of an observed quantity X are unsatisfying if they come with no measure of accuracy or precision. One approach to giving such a measure is to offer interval estimates for θ, rather than point estimates; upon observing X, we construct an interval [a, b] which is very likely to contain θ, and which is very short. The approach to e...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Thoracic Disease
سال: 2017
ISSN: 2072-1439,2077-6624
DOI: 10.21037/jtd.2017.09.14